SIMPLE (“WHAT IF”) POPULATION 2030 PROJECTIONS; METROPOLITAN AREAS (MSA) Methodology Notes Based on 2006 Population and Change Rates Since 2000 : 20070425

Projections provided for 2030
Projections provided for three cases
Case 1: Annual Metropolitan Area Growth Rate: 2000-2006
Case 2: Annual Metropolitan Area Growth Rate: 2000-2002
Case 3: Annual Metropolitan Area Growth Rate: 2004-2006
All metropolitan area projections scaled to equal national projection totals.

Scenarios:
Projections are scaled to national population projections

Scenario 1: US Census Bureau projections
(http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/natprojtab01a.csv)

Scenario 2: US Census Bureau projections adjusted to account for increase in rate of population growth from 2000 to 2006 compared to projections.

Annual Census Bureau projection rate for 2000 to 2010 is 0.91 percent.
Annual actual rate for 2000 to 2006 is 1.00 percent.

National Totals

There may be small differences between the national totals and the sum of columns due to rounding. New Orleans and Louisiana: Special Treatment

Population base: 2006 (post-Katrina)
Population rate used for 2000-2006: 2000-2005
Population rate used for 2004-2006: 2003-2005

Caveats

This is a simple projection showing the population figures that would result if particular rates of change were sustained between the base and horizon years. The are therefore "“what if” projections. Census authorities prepare more sophisticated projections based upon a range of demographic trends. However, there are no current Census Bureau projections at the metropolitan area level. Only state projections are available below the national level. Moreover, the state projections were prepared before the substantial population growth rate shifts that have occurred in recent years. TThe purpose is not to authoritatively predict future population trends. It is rather to indicate the population figures that would result if current population growth rates were to remain unchanged. This, of course, is unlikely, because various factors can intervene to materially change population growth rates (as they have in the past).

Related Links
Demographia United States Metropolitan Areas: http://www.demographia.com/db-metmic2004.pdf
Demographia: United States Domestic Migration: http://www.demographia.com/db-intmigra-msa.pdf
Demographia World Urban Areas: http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf
The Megacity Book: http://www.rentalcartours.net/megacity_book.pdf
Urban Terms Defined: http://www.demographia.com/db-define.pdf
Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: http://www.demographia.com/dhi-ix2005q3.pdf
Urban Tours by Rental Car: Index : http://www.rentalcartours.net
Demographia website: http://www.demographia.com
The Public Purpose Website: http://www.publicpurpose.com

SIMPLE POPULATION GROWTH RATE PROJECTION 2007/04/25

 METROPOLITAN AREA PROJECTIONS